Impeachment has become a tricky subject when it comes to this presidency. The list of impeachable offenses just keeps growing with each passing day, but key Democrats are concerned about the backlash that could ensue, and possibly even further popularize Trump, were the proceedings to fall through. This has left the rest of the Dems as well as the majority of the American public frustrated with those in power.
However, according to Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University and author of “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016,” who has successfully predicted presidential elections since 1984 — if Dems want a chance in hell at winning 2020, they better impeach.
CNN’s Chris Cillizza sat down for an interview with Lichtman to gauge his predictions for the upcoming 2020 election Lichtman explained that when predicting elections, there are 13 different categories he looks at.
Lichtman said, “Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the President’s limited appeal to voters.”
Cillizza explained the inner workings of Lichtman’s test, “If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple.”
Lichtman then explained that to fulfill the “scandal” category of his test, Democrats may need to impeach.
“Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020,” he stated. “An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the President a crucial fourth key — the scandal key — just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000.”
“The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination. Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession. Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim,” he added.
Normally we wouldn’t necessarily bank on something like this. But we’ve written about Professor Lichtman before, and he’s consistently correct. The man’s been right for 35 years, he deserves some credit. And it’s high time to finally impeach the motherf*cker.
Featured image via DC Tribune GalleryÂ
